Projection Bias

Projection bias is our tendency to believe our future self will feel the same way we do right now. For example, if you go grocery shopping while hungry, you might buy far more food than you need, projecting your current hunger onto your future self. This shortcut leads us to make poor decisions for the future based on temporary feelings.

Reflect on this: When making a future commitment, is my current mood or physical state influencing my choice?

Projection bias happens because our brain uses our current state as a convenient but often inaccurate shortcut to predict a future one. It's mentally demanding to simulate a different emotional or physical state, so we default to assuming things will stay the same.

This bias is most powerful when we're in a 'hot' or visceral state, such as hunger, thirst, anger, excitement, or pain. The more intense the feeling, the harder it is for us to imagine a 'cold' state where we don't feel that way.

For example, after a frustrating and stressful week at work, you might turn down an exciting but challenging project that starts in a month. You project your current burnout onto your future self, underestimating your capacity to be rested and motivated later.

In relationships, this bias can be damaging. During a heated argument, you might feel that you can't possibly forgive your partner and say something permanent based on a temporary feeling of anger. You're projecting the current hostility into the future, unable to easily imagine a time when you will feel loving again.

To counteract this, you can introduce a 'cooling off' period. Before making significant decisions, especially when experiencing a strong emotion, step away and wait. Ask yourself, "How would I feel about this on a normal, average day?" This deliberate pause helps separate a temporary state from a long-term preference.

Research in behavioral economics demonstrates that people systematically mispredict their future desires by projecting their current states onto their future selves. This impacts decisions ranging from minor consumer purchases to major life choices, often in ways that do not maximize long-term well-being.

• Read & van Leeuwen (1998) found that office workers chose significantly more unhealthy snacks for a future week when they made the choice while hungry compared to when they were satiated, demonstrating the bias in a controlled setting. [1]
• Loewenstein, O'Donoghue, & Rabin (2003) developed a formal economic model of projection bias, showing how underappreciating changes in one's state leads to choices that are inconsistent with future preferences. [2]
• Conlin, O'Donoghue, & Vogelsang (2007) provided real-world evidence by analyzing catalog sales, finding that people were more likely to return cold-weather clothing if they ordered it on an unusually cold day, suggesting they over-predicted their future need for it. [3]
• Simonsohn (2010) showed that transient factors like weather can influence major life decisions. Prospective students who visited a college campus on a cloudy day were more likely to enroll, as they appeared to project their current mood and interests (favoring academic pursuits) onto their entire college experience. [4]

The strength of projection bias can vary. It's more pronounced for visceral states (e.g., hunger, pain) than for more cognitive preferences. Experienced individuals or those who are explicitly reminded to consider their future state may be able to partially mitigate the bias. It is not a universal constant in all decisions; its influence depends heavily on the context and the intensity of the current state.