Category
Judgment & Decision-Making
Browse 14 free mental model guides in Judgment & Decision-Making.
5 guides
Decision Process & Meta
Bounded Rationality
The idea that people make “good enough” decisions because time, information, and mental energy are limited.
Read guideDual-Process Theory
Our brain uses two thinking modes: fast, automatic intuition (System 1) and slow, deliberate reasoning (System 2)—and recognizing which is active helps us make better decisions.
Read guideMulti-Attribute Decision Methods
Systematic approaches for evaluating options across multiple criteria to make more objective and transparent decisions.
Read guideThree Ways of Analyzing Decisions
Understanding how we can analyze statements and decisions through three lenses: what should be, what is, and what we should do.
Read guideReference Class Forecasting
A method that uses actual outcomes from similar past projects to predict future results, counteracting our tendency toward overconfident optimism.
Read guide3 guides
Normative Models & Decision Analysis
Decision Trees & Expected Value
A structured framework for mapping uncertain choices and calculating their average outcomes to guide better decisions.
Read guideExpected Value
Expected value compares risky options using the theoretical long‑run average of outcomes, weighted by their probabilities.
Read guideValue of Information
A decision-theoretic framework that quantifies how much additional data or research is worth before making an irreversible choice.
Read guide4 guides
Risk & Uncertainty
Ambiguity Aversion & Ellsberg Paradox
The tendency to prefer known risks over unknown risks, demonstrated through Daniel Ellsberg's famous urn experiments that challenged economic theories of rational choice.
Read guideExpected Utility & Risk
How people weigh potential outcomes against their probabilities—and why risk preferences vary across situations.
Read guideProspect Theory & Loss Aversion
People feel losses about twice as intensely as equivalent gains, driving irrational risk-avoidance and explainable patterns in how we frame everyday choices.
Read guideSignal Detection Theory
Signal detection theory provides a framework to separate actual detection ability from decision-making bias.
Read guide2 guides
Time & Self-Control
Hyperbolic Discounting
Our tendency to strongly prefer immediate rewards over future ones, even when waiting would actually give us a better outcome.
Read guidePrecommitment Strategies
Voluntarily restricting your future options to align your actions with your long-term goals, despite changing preferences.
Read guide