Guides
Aggregation & Extremizing Playbooks
Browse 9 free mental model guides in Aggregation & Extremizing Playbooks.
Guides in this category
Calibration Training
A structured process for aligning your subjective confidence with your objective accuracy to make more reliable predictions.
Read guideIndependent Forecasts
Forecasts built separately produce better collective predictions than those developed together.
Read guideBrier Score
A mathematical tool that rewards confidence when you're right and penalizes you harshly when you're wrong—exposing the difference between feeling certain and being correct.
Read guideMitigating Correlated Errors
Strategies to prevent groups from making the same mistake, turning 'wisdom of crowds' into 'madness of mobs.'
Read guideSimple Forecast Averaging
Improve prediction accuracy by combining multiple independent forecasts into a single, simple average.
Read guideWisdom of the Crowd
Under the right conditions, averaging independent guesses from diverse groups often beats individual experts.
Read guideWeighted Averaging by Track Record
A method for combining predictions by giving more influence to sources with proven past accuracy, using scoring rules to measure and weight expertise.
Read guideForecast Calibration
The degree to which predicted probabilities match actual outcomes over time—the difference between what you expect to happen and what actually happens.
Read guideWhy Aggregates Are Conservative
Explores why averages and group data are more stable and less extreme than the individual pieces they are made of.
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