Guides
Aggregation & Wisdom of Crowds
13 free guides in this category.
Guides in this category.
Brier Score
A method to measure the accuracy of probability forecasts by rewarding both correctness and confidence.
Read guideCalibration Training
A method to improve the accuracy of your predictions by systematically tracking your confidence against real-world outcomes.
Read guideConditions for Crowd Wisdom
The four conditions under which groups make smarter decisions than individuals: diversity, independence, decentralization, and proper aggregation.
Read guideCrowdsourcing vs. Crowd Wisdom
Distinguishes between getting work done by many people (crowdsourcing) and extracting accurate collective judgments from diverse, independent opinions (crowd wisdom).
Read guideExtremizing Forecasts
A technique for aggregating predictions that amplifies the consensus of multiple forecasters by moving pooled probabilities toward extremes when forecasters agree.
Read guideGalton's Ox Experiment
The surprising discovery that the collective average guess of a large, diverse crowd can be remarkably accurate.
Read guideInformation Cascades
How people make decisions by observing the actions of others, sometimes ignoring their own private information.
Read guidePrediction Markets
Markets where people trade on future events, turning scattered information into a shared forecast when participation and incentives are strong.
Read guideSimple Averaging of Forecasts
A powerful method for improving prediction accuracy by taking the simple average of multiple forecasts, which cancels out individual errors and often outperforms a typical single forecast.
Read guideSuperforecasting Principles
A set of empirically tested cognitive habits that distinguish elite predictors from ordinary experts, focusing on how they think, not what they think.
Read guideDelphi Method
A structured technique for gathering expert judgment through anonymous, iterative questionnaires that converge toward consensus without the distortions of face-to-face group dynamics.
Read guideThe Wisdom of Crowds
The collective opinion of a diverse, independent group is often more accurate than that of any single expert.
Read guideWeighted Averaging
A method for combining judgments that gives more influence to more reliable or knowledgeable sources, improving accuracy over simple averaging.
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