Guides

Beliefs, Expectations & Information Design

15 free guides in this category.

Guides in this category.

Learn to rationally adjust your beliefs and improve your judgment by incorporating new evidence.

Why our confidence often exceeds our accuracy, what research finds, and practical steps to calibrate judgments.

Treat your beliefs not as certainties (true/false) but as probabilities that you can update with new evidence.

A rigorous framework for measuring how much information improves decisions and determining when seeking information is worth the cost.

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Understand how strategically revealing truthful information can persuade rational individuals more effectively than raw data dumps.

Quantitative tools for updating beliefs by measuring how much new evidence should shift your confidence in competing explanations.

The tendency to process information in a way that supports desired conclusions rather than remaining objectively neutral.

The sequence in which we encounter information shapes our judgments and decisions, with early evidence often carrying disproportionate weight.

Structured ways to turn expert beliefs into explicit starting assumptions for analysis, with steps to reduce bias and document uncertainty.

People naturally ignore information because processing it is costly, leading to systematic mistakes even when trying to make rational choices.

Learn to measure and improve the accuracy of your probabilistic forecasts by honestly assessing your own uncertainty.

A method for making reliable decisions by analyzing data as it arrives and stopping as soon as enough evidence is gathered.

How beliefs spread through networks and why influence depends on your position in the social graph.

Messages without binding consequences that can still influence beliefs and decisions through credibility signals.