Guides
Risk & Uncertainty
Browse 4 free mental model guides in Risk & Uncertainty.
Guides in this category
Ambiguity Aversion & Ellsberg Paradox
The tendency to prefer known risks over unknown risks, demonstrated through Daniel Ellsberg's famous urn experiments that challenged economic theories of rational choice.
Read guideExpected Utility & Risk
How people weigh potential outcomes against their probabilities—and why risk preferences vary across situations.
Read guideProspect Theory & Loss Aversion
People feel losses about twice as intensely as equivalent gains, driving irrational risk-avoidance and explainable patterns in how we frame everyday choices.
Read guideSignal Detection Theory
Signal detection theory provides a framework to separate actual detection ability from decision-making bias.
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